Can Ukraine play MAD with Russia?
By the Editorial Board of VoxUkraine
The stand-off between Russia and the West is increasingly
reminiscent of Cold War times. Russia’s annexation of Crimea, giving weapons to
separatists in the East of Ukraine, shooting down MH17, and most recently the
direct invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops has made Russia an isolated,
pariah-like state. In all likelihood, this confrontation is likely to continue
for a while—at least until Mr. Putin steps down—so Ukraine should prepare for a
long period of tensions with Russia with a significant risk of escalation into
an open war. As military assistance from NATO will likely remain limited and
the West appears unwilling to inflict any meaningful economic damage on Russia
unless and until an EU/NATO country is attacked, Ukraine will have to
predominantly face this confrontation alone.
Obviously, the prospect of an open Russo-Ukrainian war is
terrifying not only for Ukraine but also for Russia since the death toll is
going to be huge. Russia has every tool to stop escalation and normalize the
relationship between countries if it wishes to do so. Since Ukraine is a
“little brother” in this relationship, its ability to stop the “big brother”
from bullying is more limited. However, the experience of the Cold War teaches
us that there are a number of policies Ukraine could follow to make the
prospect of a war so costly for Russia that it will not invade Ukraine openly
and en masse.
