The Third Russia-Ukraine Gas War
At 10 am on Monday, June 16, 2014, Gazprom, a Russian gas
monopoly, cut
off supplies of gas to Ukraine. This is the third time in the last ten
years when Gazprom has tried to use a cut-off to force the Ukrainian government
to accept a deal it did not want to accept. In the previous two cut-offs--in
January 2004 and January 2009, that is, in the middle of bitter cold winters--Ukraine
bowed to the pressure and agreed to unfavorable contracts with high prices, tough
clauses, and heavy penalties. Each time, Russia used Gazprom and energy prices
as a political instrument to pressure pro-Western governments in Ukraine. Although
the current cut-off is motivated by the same political factors, the outcome could
be different this time.
