Minsk Protocol is a Big Failure?

By Kateryna Dronova (Berkeley, CA).

A month ago in Minsk, the Trilateral contact group (Ukrainian, Russian and OSCE representatives) signed a ceasefire protocol to restore peace in the eastern regions of Ukraine. In the first 24 hours after the agreement was signed, hope for peace was demolished by the renewed fighting near Mariupol: pro-Russian belligerents equipped with Grad rockets fired 16 times at Ukrainian positions allegedly from the Russian territory. Subsequently, Ukrainian forces in Mariupol were reinforced with additional troops. These events triggered a huge media storm and a widespread critique of the peace negotiations and Minsk Protocol as nonsensical, ineffective and useless strategies. Hence, Ukraine’s complex position was significantly weakened.

The Ukrainian government has to explain to its own nation exactly what is happening, and it hasn’t done so yet. […] The people of Ukraine will not accept peace at any price.
Konstantin Batozsky, adviser to Serhiy Taruta, Donetsk Governor.

The negotiations in Minsk (attended by former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma, prime minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) Aleksandr Zakharchenko, head of the self-proclaimed Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR) Igor Plotnitsky, Russian ambassador to Ukraine Mikhail Zurabov, and OSCE representative Heidi Tagliavini) progressed on September 19^th. The initial Minsk Protocol was detailed by another set of agreed provisions laid out in the Memorandum on the Protocol’s enforcement. These documents must also be read in light of two other legislative acts: Bill on special procedures of self-governance in certain areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine (5081) (known as the “Law on special status”) and Bill on the prevention of the prosecution and punishment of persons who participated in events in Donetsk and Luhansk regions (5082) (also known as the “Amnesty law”). Serhiy Taruta, the governor of Donetsk Oblast, has recently published his critical and well-structured analysis of the truce. This post aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the abovementioned agreement and legislation (Minsk Protocol, Memorandum and two supplementing Bills) with regard to the existing practices of managing conflict and post-conflict negotiations, including drafting of cease-fire agreements. Thus, we shift the focus from discussing issues in the Minsk Protocol to factors omitted by drafters and negotiators and the significance of such omissions.